[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 7 10:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 6 October, 
with no solar flares. There are currently no sunspots on the 
visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 7-9 October, solar 
activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. The solar wind 
speed was near its nominal values, varying in the range 350-375 
km/s during the UT day 6 October. The IMF Bt was in the range 
1-3 nT and the IMF Bz varied between +2/-2 nT. For most part 
of UT day 7 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain 
near its nominal levels. Then from late UT 7 October or thereabout, 
the solar wind speed is expected to increase due to arrival of 
CIR and HSS associated with a large recurrent positive polarity 
north polar connected coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21121000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   21110100
      Townsville           4   21121111
      Learmonth            3   21121110
      Alice Springs        2   21120000
      Culgoora             2   21121000
      Gingin               2   11121000
      Canberra             2   21121000
      Launceston           3   21221100
      Hobart               3   21221000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   11121000
      Casey                6   23222111
      Mawson               7   43110021

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2311 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct    20    Active
08 Oct    35    Active to Minor Storm
09 Oct    20    Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 October and 
is current for 7-9 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet 
levels on UT day 6 October across the Australian region. For 
the next UT day, 7 October, the global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to reach Active levels and at times to Minor storm 
levels due to the anticipated arrival of CIR associated with 
a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal 
hole. Active to Minor Storm conditions are expected to continue 
on UT day 8 Oct associated with the subsequent HSS from the coronal 
hole. The aurora may be visible on the local nights of the 7 
and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and Southwest 
coast of Western Australia.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair
08 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
09 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
6 October, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the equatorial 
regions. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 7-8 October 
due to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were at slightly 
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 06 October. 
The highest MUF depression of 30% below monthly predicted levels 
occurred over the Northern Australian regions during the local 
day. The outlook for today (UT day 07 Oct) is for the MUFs to 
return to mostly near monthly predicted values. Depressed MUFs 
are expected to begin from UT day 08 Oct, due to the likely disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions associated with the approaching coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    28500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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