[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 6 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 5 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently no sunspots on the
visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 6-8 October, solar
activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. The solar wind
speed was near its nominal values, varying in the range 370-400
km/s during the UT day 5 October. The IMF Bt was in the range
1-5 nT and the IMF Bz varied between +3/-3 nT. During the next
UT day, 6 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain
near its nominal levels. Then, on 7 October, the solar wind speed
is expected to increase due to arrival of CIR and HSS associated
with a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22223111
Cocos Island 3 11222100
Darwin 7 22233102
Townsville 7 22233111
Learmonth 6 21223202
Alice Springs 6 22223102
Culgoora 6 22223111
Gingin 6 22222202
Canberra 5 22222111
Launceston 7 23222212
Hobart 5 12222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 12132010
Casey 11 34322212
Mawson 17 53223134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 20 Active
08 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 October and
is current for 7-9 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet
to Unsettled levels on UT day 5 October across the Australian
region. For the next UT day, 6 October, the global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be Quiet and occasionally may reach
Unsettled levels. On UT day 7 October, geomagnetic activity may
reach Active to Minor Storm levels due to arrival of CIR and
HSS associated with a large recurrent positive polarity north
polar connected coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
5 October, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the equatorial
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next UT day,
6 October. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 7-8 October
due to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were at slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 05 October.
The highest MUF depression of 20% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Northern Australian regions during the local
day. The two day outlook (UT days 06-07 October) is for the MUFs
to be near monthly predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 45200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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