[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 October 18 issued 2340 UT on 03 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 4 09:40:55 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 3 October,
with no solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk, Region 2723 currently located at S08W53.
For the next 3 UT days, 4-6 October, solar activity is expected
to be at Very Low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery up to 03/1238 UT. The solar wind speed were mostly steady
near 425 km/s up to 03/1900 UT and thereafter gradually increased
to 500 km/s by the end of the UT day. These moderate enhancements
in solar wind speed are in response to the arrival of high speed
stream from a recurrent negative-polarity equatorial coronal
hole. The IMF Bt varied between 2-9 nT and the IMF Bz varied
between +6/-4 nT on UT day, 3 October. The outlook for today
(UT day 4 October) is for the solar wind to remain at these moderately
elevated levels as the effects of the coronal hole persists.
The influence of the coronal hole should start to wane on UT
day 5 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 10120112
Cocos Island 3 10220111
Darwin 3 10121112
Townsville 6 11231212
Learmonth 6 11231212
Alice Springs 4 10220212
Culgoora 4 11121112
Gingin 3 10120122
Canberra 2 00120112
Launceston 3 11120112
Hobart 2 00120112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01100011
Casey 7 22320113
Mawson 13 32111054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 4220 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly Quiet on UT day 3
October across the Australian region, with an isolated period
of Unsettled conditions in some areas. The Antarctic region experienced
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions . The outlook for the
UT days 4 and 5 October is for Quiet to Unsettled conditions
and occasionally may reach active levels. The forecasted disturbed
conditions are in response to moderately elevated solar wind
speeds emanating from the recurrent negative-polarity equatorial
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
3 October, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the equatorial
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day
4 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 03 Oct.
The highest MUF depression of 20% - 35% below monthly predicted
levels occurred over the Niue island and North Australian regions.
In contrast, the strongest MUFs of 30% above monthly predicted
levels occurred over the Antarctic during morning. The outlook
for today (UT day 04 Oct) is for the MUFs to be mostly near monthly
predicted values. Depressed MUFs are expected to begin from UT
day 05 Oct in response to the likely disturbed geomagnetic conditions
associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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