[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 October 18 issued 2339 UT on 02 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 3 09:39:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 2 October,
with one B-Class flare starting at 02/0441 UT. There is currently
1 numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk. For the
next 3 UT days, 3-5 October, solar activity is expected to be
at Very Low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery up to 02/1412 UT. The solar wind speed reached a maximum
of 537 km/s at 02/0644 UT then gradually decreased, currently
around 440 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 2-6 nT and the IMF
Bz varied between +/-3 nT on UT day, 2 October. The solar wind
is expected to remain moderately enhanced on UT day 3 October,
then increase either late on 3 October or on 4 October with the
expected arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent negative-polarity
equatorial coronal hole. The influence of the coronal hole should
start to wane on 5 October. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 02/1400UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22201011
Cocos Island 3 22101120
Darwin 4 22201111
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 6 23212120
Alice Springs 4 23201011
Culgoora 3 22201011
Gingin 4 22201021
Canberra 3 22201011
Launceston 5 23211011
Hobart 4 23201011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 22201011
Casey 14 35422021
Mawson 14 44412132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0112 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly Quiet on UT day 02
October across the Australian region, with an isolated period
of Unsettled conditions in some areas. The Antarctic region experienced
Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions with an isolated Minor
Storm period. The outlook for the UT day 3 October is for Quiet
to Unsettled conditions. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase either later on 3 October or on 4 October due to the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole, which may result in Active
periods. Conditions are expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 5 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
04 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
05 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Northern Australian and the Niue Island
regions experienced Minor MUF depressions during the local day
and local night on UT day 2 October. The Southern Australian
and Antarctic regions were mostly near monthly predicted levels.
Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values with possible Minor
depressions are expected for the Australian region on UT days
3-5 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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