[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 14 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 13 November. There
is currently one region on the visible solar disc, region 2726
(N08W12) which continues to show signs of decay. No earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery till 1136 UT/13
November. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
600 km/s to 430 km/s through the UT day 13 November as the coronal
hole effect has weakened. Further weakening in solar wind stream
may be expected over the next 24 hours. On UT day 13 November,
the north south component of IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +3/-2
nT, total IMF (Bt) between 2 and 5 nT and the particle density
between 4 ppcc and 9 ppcc. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next three UT days (14 to 16 November).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10111001
Townsville 2 10111011
Alice Springs 1 10111000
Launceston 1 10111001
Hobart 1 10111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Mawson 11 33211134
Davis 10 33322032
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2321 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 5 Quiet
15 Nov 4 Quiet
16 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australia/Antarctic regions with some unsettled periods in
the Antarctic region on UT day 13 November. Quiet global geomagnetic
conditions may be expected for the next three UT days (14 to
16 November).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 30% on UT day 13 November mainly due to the continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions may continue to be observed for the next three
UT days (14 to 16 November).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
15 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
16 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 30% in the Australian/Antarctic regions on UT day 13 November
mainly due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Minor to moderate MUF depressions in these regions
may continue to be observed for the next three UT days (14 to
16 November).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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