[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 13 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There is currently one region on the visible solar disc, region
2726 (N08E02) which continues to show signs of decay. No earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed remained elevated due to the effects of a coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream, ranging between 540-650 km/s
and is currently ~590 km/s at the time of this report. This high
speed solar wind stream influence is expected to wane over the
next 24 hours and solar wind parameters should return to ambient
levels within the next 2 days. The north south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied between +/-5 nT with no sustained southward excursions.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 23322112
Townsville 6 23222111
Alice Springs 6 13212112
Launceston 9 23322222
Hobart 7 13322112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Mawson 24 34423255
Davis 21 33533244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2221 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 6 Quiet
14 Nov 5 Quiet
15 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern
Hemisphere with isolated pockets of depressions at lower latitudes.
The Southern Hemisphere varied from near predicted MUF values
to moderate depressions at low to mid latitudes, particularly
during local day hours. Southern polar latitudes were mostly
depressed with isolated periods of degraded HF communication
over the last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail
for the next 2-3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
14 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
15 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. MUFs near predicted monthly values
for Equatorial regions and mild to moderately depressed MUFs
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and Northern AUS regions. Depressed
MUFs for Antarctic regions. Expect similar reduced ionospheric
support for Northern AUS to Antarctic regions over the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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