[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 18 issued 2331 UT on 01 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 2 09:31:17 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last
24 hours with no significant flare activity. The visible disk
is spotless and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in
the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between
390-450km/s over the UT day. The north south component of the
IMF (Bz) ranged between -2nT and +5nT with no sustained southward
periods. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels
over the next 3 days while solar activity will be Very Low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11100002
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Culgoora 0 01000001
Gingin - --------
Canberra 0 01000001
Launceston 1 11000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 3 22200001
Mawson 3 21201002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 5 2111 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 5 Quiet
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements recorded in some
low latitude areas and occasional depressions for mid latitudes.
HF conditions and maximum user frequencies are expected to be
near monthly predicted values for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over most of
the AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
observed in Equatorial regions and minor depressed conditions
for Northern AUS regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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