[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 18 issued 2351 UT on 30 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 1 09:51:42 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last
24 hours. The visible disk is spotless and there were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind
speed increased from 350km/s at 00UT to 478km/s at 11:35UT and
is currently 440km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-6nT between 00UT-03UT
and since then between -3nT and +6nT with no sustained southward
periods. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22101111
Cocos Island 3 22101110
Darwin 4 32101111
Learmonth 4 32101110
Alice Springs 2 2110011-
Culgoora 2 21100111
Gingin 3 221001--
Canberra 2 21100100
Launceston 4 22111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 5 33211100
Mawson 6 23111222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0011 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 5 Quiet
02 May 5 Quiet
03 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region for 30Apr. Quiet conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements recorded in some
mid latitude areas and occasional depressions for low latitudes.
HF conditions and maximum user frequencies are expected to be
near monthly predicted values for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over
most of the AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor to moderate
MUF enhancements observed in Southern AUS regions and minor depressed
conditions for Northern AUS regions. Similar HF conditions are
expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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