[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 21 10:30:29 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 20 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Solar
wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours from 510km/s to 380km/s.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) ranged between +/-4nT during this period. Btotal was mostly
near 2-3nT and ranged between 1-5 nT . The solar wind speed is
expected to remain near nominal levels to slightly enhanced over
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11002010
Cocos Island 1 10101010
Darwin 1 11001011
Townsville 2 11002111
Learmonth 2 11001120
Alice Springs 2 11002010
Culgoora 2 12002011
Gingin 2 11002020
Canberra 2 11002010
Launceston 3 12112011
Hobart 2 11012010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 11011010
Casey 10 33322132
Mawson 27 45313264
Davis 18 34422252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 5431 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 6 Quiet
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions prevailed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. The Antarctic region was Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active to Minor Storm levels.
Expect Mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over the next three
days with a possibility of isolated cases of Active to Minor
storm levels at higher latitudes on day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with near
predicted to moderately depressed MUFs observed. Expect a return
to mostly normal HF conditions for this period in the solar cycle.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions varied between near predicted and minor
depressions for 20 March. Expect near predicted MUFs over the
next three days. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E over
Niue Station.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 306000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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