[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 20 10:30:28 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 March. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. 
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 19 March in 
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1812UT. Solar 
wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours from ~600km/s to 
~~490km/s, currently near 500km/s. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +4/-6nT 
during this period. Btotal was mostly near 4-5nT and ranged between 
3-8 nT . Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to gradually 
wane over the next three days, although there may be periods 
where the solar wind bumps up due to the influence of small coronal 
holes near the equatorial region of the Sun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33212222
      Cocos Island         6   22212222
      Darwin               6   22212222
      Townsville           8   33212222
      Learmonth           11   32213333
      Alice Springs        7   32212222
      Culgoora             8   33212222
      Gingin               8   32212232
      Canberra             9   33312222
      Launceston          13   33323332
      Hobart               9   33312222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    10   33323221
      Casey               17   34522233
      Mawson              41   55433366
      Davis               23   44433353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20   3201 3455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 19 March and 
is current for 19-20 Mar. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
observed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours 
with isolated periods of Active to Minor Storm levels in the 
Antarctic region. Expect these conditions to prevail as the coronal 
hole influence diminishes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with near 
predicted to moderately depressed MUFs observed. Expect similar 
conditions to prevail for for today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
21 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 19 March 
and is current for 19-20 Mar. HF conditions varied between near 
predicted and moderate depressions for 19 March. Similar conditions 
are expected today, 20 March, with a return to near predicted 
MUF's on 21-22 March as geomagnetic activity decreases. Observed 
isolated periods of sporadic E throughout the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 518 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   291000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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