[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 30 09:30:40 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 29 Jun.
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT
day, 29 Jun in available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind speed
continued to decline as coronal hole influences wane, currently~450km/s.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT
and the IMF Bt was ~5nT. Solar wind speed may increase slightly
today, 30 Jun in response to high speed solar wind stream from
a weak coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 12010000
Darwin 2 12110000
Townsville 2 12110000
Learmonth 2 12120000
Alice Springs 1 12010000
Culgoora 1 12010000
Gingin 1 11010000
Canberra 1 11010000
Launceston 1 12010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22111210
Mawson 7 33321110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 29 Jun. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next
three days due to the influence of a weak coronal hole. A period
of significant southward Bz component could produce isolated
Active periods over the the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E
and spread F throughout the Australian region. The three days
outlook (30 Jun- 02 Jul) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted
monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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