[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 29 09:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 28 Jun.
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery up to 1548UT. Solar wind speed remained elevated under
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole, currently ~500Km/s. The Bz component of IMF was
between +/- 4nT. The IMF Bt during this period remained ~5nT.
During the next UT day, 29 Jun, solar wind speed is expected
to decrease to nominal values as coronal hole influences wane.
Then it may increase slightly on day two, 30 Jun in response
to high speed solar wind stream from another coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111210
Darwin 3 11111211
Townsville 4 12111211
Learmonth 4 21211210
Alice Springs 2 11110210
Gingin 3 21101220
Canberra 2 10010210
Launceston 4 11112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 10022200
Casey 6 22211222
Mawson 19 53112254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1322 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 28 Jun. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next
three days, however a period of significant southward Bz component
could produce isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E
and spread F throughout the Australian region. The three days
outlook (29 Jun- 01 Jul) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted
monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 379000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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