[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 18 issued 2350 UT on 17 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Jun 18 09:50:59 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. There is currently 
one numbered sunspot on the visible disk, region 2713 (N04W05) 
which was the source of minor B-class flare activity. No earthward 
directed CME's were observed in available LASCO imagery. The 
solar wind speed declined gradually from ~320km/s at 00UT to 
~~290km/s at 17UT. Since then it has steadily increased to be 
~~380km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT between the period 00UT-17UT. 
Since 17UT, Btotal has increased and Bz is currently ranging 
between +/-10nT. The solar wind stream is expected to strengthen 
over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           2   11100111
      Learmonth            2   11100112
      Alice Springs        1   01100111
      Gingin               2   01000221
      Canberra             1   00100111
      Launceston           2   11100111
      Hobart               1   00100111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                3   22100211
      Mawson              10   32200144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
19 Jun    12    Unsettled
20 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions with 
possible Active periods expected for 18Jun due to the effects 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 19Jun-20Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 17Jun 
with occasional enhancements observed at low to high latitudes. 
MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next 
three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Jun     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours with periods of minor enhancements observed 
at low to high latitude stations for the AUS/NZ region. MUFs 
expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 301 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    12300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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