[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 17 09:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 16 June).
There is currently one numbered sunspot region (2713) on the
solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earthward directed
CME was observed today. The solar wind speed varied mostly between
290 km/s and 310 km/s today. The IMF Bt varied mostly between
1.5 and 4 nT today whereas the Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between +/-3 nT during this time. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days (UT days
17 to 19 June). The solar wind stream is expected to stay at
background levels on 17 June. Slight strengthening in solar wind
is possible on UT days 18 and 19 June due to the effect of a
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10100000
Darwin 1 1110000-
Townsville 1 1110000-
Learmonth 1 1110000-
Alice Springs 0 0010000-
Gingin 0 0000000-
Canberra 0 0000000-
Launceston 0 10100000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 000000--
Casey 0 0110000-
Mawson 1 2110000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region
on UT day 16 June were at Quiet levels. Similar levels of geomagnetic
activity may be expected on UT day 17 June. Some periods of Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are possible on UT day 18 and 19 June
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 16 June.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal for the next
three days (UT days 17 to 19 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 3 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 1 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate enhancements for AUS/NZ regions
on UT day 16 June. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
normal in this region for the next three days (UT days 17 to
19 June).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 15100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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