[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 15 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 14 June).
There is currently one numbered sunspot region (2713) on the
solar disk visible from the Earthside. One CME is visible near
the south-west limb in the LASCO C2 imagery starting around 1700
UT. It seems to be a backside event and is not expected to have
any earthward component. Further analysis is required to confirm
this after more images become available. The solar wind speed
varied between 300 km/s and 350 km/s today. The IMF Bt varied
mostly between 2 and 6 nT today whereas the Bz component of IMF
varied mostly between +/-5 nT during this time. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels and solar wind stream
at normal levels for the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 June).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11211011
Darwin 3 11211011
Townsville 3 11211011
Learmonth 3 21210011
Alice Springs 2 11210011
Gingin 3 20210021
Canberra 1 10110011
Launceston 3 11211011
Hobart 1 10111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 3 21210021
Mawson 9 33210142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1111 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region
on UT day 14 June were at Quiet levels. Similar levels of geomagnetic
activity may be expected for the next three days (UT days 15
to 17 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 14 June.
HF conditions are expected to stay normal for the next three
days (UT days 15 to 17 June).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate enhancements for AUS/NZ regions
on UT day 14 June. HF conditions are expected to stay normal
in this region for the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 June).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 17800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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