[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 14 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 13 June).
There is currently one numbered sunspot region (2713) on the
solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed today. The solar wind speed stayed close to 300
km/s today. The IMF Bt varied between 2 and 6 nT today whereas
the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-5 nT during
this time. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels
and solar wind stream at normal levels for the next three days
(UT days 14 to 16 June).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00100001
Darwin 0 01100000
Townsville 1 10100011
Learmonth 0 00100001
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00000001
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 01100011
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12100011
Mawson 15 12110064
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2210 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 5 Quiet
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region
on UT day 13 June were at Quiet levels. Similar levels of geomagnetic
activity may be expected for the next three days (UT days 14
to 16 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 13 June.
HF conditions are expected to stay normal for the next three
days (UT days 14 to 16 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 4 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 4 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate enhancements for AUS/NZ regions
on UT day 13 June. HF conditions are expected to stay normal
in this region for the next three days (UT days 14 to 16 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 15800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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