[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 12 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 11 June). 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed today. The solar wind 
speed varied mostly between 290 and 320 km/s today. The IMF Bt 
varied between 1.5 and 6.0 nT today whereas the Bz component 
of IMF varied mostly between +/-3.5 nT. The outlook for the solar 
wind speed is to become moderately enhanced either late on the 
UT day 12 June or early on the UT day 13 June due to the influence 
of a recurrent coronal hole. For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 June, 
solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10100100
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   10100100
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Gingin               0   00000100
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11001100
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                2   11101101
      Mawson               9   31000215

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     8    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible
13 Jun     8    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible
14 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
on UT day 11 June were at Quiet levels. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to vary from Quiet to Unsettled levels with a chance 
of isolated Active periods, either late on the UT day 12 June 
or early on the UT day 13 June, due to the influence of a recurrent 
coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity may be expected to return 
to Quiet levels by UT day 14 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 11 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 
12 and 14 June. Minor MUF depressions may be possible on UT day 
13 June due to some possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
14 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 11 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 12 and 14 June in this region. Minor MUF depressions 
may be possible on UT day 13 June due to some possible rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    11500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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