[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 18 issued 2338 UT on 10 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Jun 11 09:38:59 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 10 June. 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
disk. For the next 3 UT days, 11-13 June, solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels with a slight chance for C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 
10 June, in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/1812 UT. During the last 
24 h, the solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 10/0011 
UT, then decreased, currently around 315 km/s. The IMF Bt varied 
between 1-5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-3 nT. 
The outlook for 11 June is for the solar wind speed to remain 
at nominal values then become moderately enhanced either late 
on the UT day 12 June or early on the UT day 13 June due to the 
influence of a recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   02100010
      Darwin               2   12100010
      Townsville           2   12100011
      Learmonth            1   02100010
      Alice Springs        1   02100000
      Culgoora             1   02100010
      Gingin               1   01000020
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           1   12000000
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   23100010
      Mawson               5   21000024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2112 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     4    Quiet
12 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
13 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
on UT day 10 June were at Quiet levels. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be Quiet on the UT day 11 June, then become Quiet 
to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated Active periods, either 
late on the UT day 12 June or early on the UT day 13 June, due 
to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jun    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 10 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next two UT days, 11-12 June. On UT day 13 June, 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
but may become enhanced due to expected Unsettled geomagnetic 
activity levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: < A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    14200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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