[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 June 18 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jun 7 09:31:02 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 6 June. A 
C1 solar flare was observed at 06/1100 UT from region 2712. There 
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. 
For the next 3 UT days, 7-9 June, solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels with a slight chance for C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 
6 June, in LASCO C2 imagery up to 06/1612 UT. During the last 
24 h, the solar winds remained moderate. The solar wind speed 
varied between 420 km/s and 460 km/s, currently around 430 km/s. 
The IMF Bt started this period varying in the range 1-4 nT, then 
started a gradual increase after 06/1200 UT, currently around 
10 nT. The Bz component of IMF had an extended southward period 
after 06/1100 UT, reaching a minimum of -7.8 nT at 06/1822 UT. 
The outlook for 7-9 June is for the solar wind speed to gradually 
decrease to nominal values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled, 
with an isolated Active period

Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11001231
      Darwin               4   10101231
      Townsville           4   11101231
      Learmonth            4   10002232
      Alice Springs        3   00101231
      Culgoora             4   21001231
      Gingin               7   10102342
      Canberra             3   01001231
      Launceston           6   11002242
      Hobart               3   01001231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00001222
      Casey                7   22101242
      Mawson              19   32312355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2211 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun     6    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
08 Jun     5    Quiet
09 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
started the UT day, 6 June, at Quiet levels, then increased to 
Quiet-Unsettled with some locations experiencing Active levels. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet-Unsettled on UT 
day, 7 June, with a slight chance of isolated Active periods. 
Mostly Quiet levels are expected on the UT days, 8-9 June, as 
the solar wind returns to nominal values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 6 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 7-9 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.