[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 June 18 issued 2343 UT on 05 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Jun 6 09:43:32 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day, 5 June. 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region which has rotated 
on to the west solar limb. For the next 3 UT days, 6-8 June, 
solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with 
a slight chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed during the UT day, 5 June, in LASCO C2 imagery up to 
05/1812 UT. During the last 24 h, the solar winds continued to 
weaken due to the waning influence of a recurrent trans-equatorial 
coronal hole. The solar wind speed decreased from around 480 
km/s to a minimum of 385 km/s at 05/0921 UT, then gradually increased 
and is currently 450 km/s. The IMF Bt during this period was 
varying in the range 1-9 nT. The Bz component of IMF was between 
-2 nT and 6 nT. The outlook for 6-8 June is for the solar wind 
speed to continue to gradually decrease to nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21212220
      Darwin               4   21211211
      Townsville           5   21212221
      Learmonth            5   21222210
      Alice Springs        4   21211210
      Culgoora             4   21112220
      Gingin               5   21122220
      Canberra             5   21212220
      Launceston           6   22222220
      Hobart               5   21122220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   11022100
      Casey                8   32312221
      Mawson              17   53324232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun     5    Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled periods
07 Jun     5    Quiet
08 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 5 June. Due to waning coronal 
hole effects, geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at 
Quiet levels on UT day, 6 June, with a chance of isolated Unsettled 
periods. Mostly Quiet levels are expected on the UT days, 7-8 
June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jun     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 5 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 6-8 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 565 km/sec  Density: 6.3 p/cc  Temp: 490000 K  Bz: 0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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