[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 18 issued 2336 UT on 21 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 22 09:36:58 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 July, with 
no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on 
the solar disk visible from the Earthside, Region 2716 located 
at N15E02. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and 
C3 imagery up to 21/1512 UT. During the UT day 21 July the solar 
wind speed was near its moderate levels, varying between 450 
km/s and 570 km/s, currently near 500 km/s. The total IMF Bt 
varied between 4 nT and 10 nT during the past 24 hours. The Bz 
component of IMF varied between -8 nT and +6 nT. Very low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 22-24 
July. During the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected 
to decline towards its nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22333211
      Cocos Island         5   12322200
      Darwin               8   22332211
      Townsville           9   22333221
      Learmonth            9   22333211
      Alice Springs        7   22332210
      Culgoora             8   22332211
      Gingin               8   21333211
      Canberra             7   12332211
      Launceston          11   22343222
      Hobart               8   11333211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    12   11344311
      Casey               11   33333211
      Mawson              23   44443315
      Davis               15   22433324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2112 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul     7    Quiet
24 Jul    20    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region on UT day 21 July. Mostly quiet 
to unsettled levels of global geomagnetic activity are expected 
for today, UT day 22 July, since the Earth is still under the 
influence of moderately elevated solar wind speed. Active and 
occasional minor storm condition is expected from early 24 July 
in response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent 
equatorial coronal hole (possibly even connected with the southern 
polar coronal hole).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
21 July with periods of mild to moderate MUF enhancements in 
the Southern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for the next two UT days (22-23 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 21 July, with periods of mild to moderate 
MUF enhancements during local night. Incidents of sporadic-E 
were observed at some Australian sites. Mostly normal to mildly 
enhanced HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for 
the next two UT days (22-23 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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