[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 18 issued 2336 UT on 21 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 22 09:36:58 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 July, with
no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on
the solar disk visible from the Earthside, Region 2716 located
at N15E02. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and
C3 imagery up to 21/1512 UT. During the UT day 21 July the solar
wind speed was near its moderate levels, varying between 450
km/s and 570 km/s, currently near 500 km/s. The total IMF Bt
varied between 4 nT and 10 nT during the past 24 hours. The Bz
component of IMF varied between -8 nT and +6 nT. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 22-24
July. During the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected
to decline towards its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22333211
Cocos Island 5 12322200
Darwin 8 22332211
Townsville 9 22333221
Learmonth 9 22333211
Alice Springs 7 22332210
Culgoora 8 22332211
Gingin 8 21333211
Canberra 7 12332211
Launceston 11 22343222
Hobart 8 11333211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 11344311
Casey 11 33333211
Mawson 23 44443315
Davis 15 22433324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2112 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 7 Quiet
24 Jul 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region on UT day 21 July. Mostly quiet
to unsettled levels of global geomagnetic activity are expected
for today, UT day 22 July, since the Earth is still under the
influence of moderately elevated solar wind speed. Active and
occasional minor storm condition is expected from early 24 July
in response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent
equatorial coronal hole (possibly even connected with the southern
polar coronal hole).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
21 July with periods of mild to moderate MUF enhancements in
the Southern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next two UT days (22-23 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 21 July, with periods of mild to moderate
MUF enhancements during local night. Incidents of sporadic-E
were observed at some Australian sites. Mostly normal to mildly
enhanced HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for
the next two UT days (22-23 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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