[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 7 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 06 July. The 
largest flare, C1.6, was produced at 06/2007 UT by an active 
region behind the eastern limb. Most probably, this is a returning 
active region 2713. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions 
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 07-09 July, 
solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels. 
A CME which was observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 05/1125 
UT is not expected to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed during the UT day, 06 July, via LASCO C2 imagery 
up to 06/1600 UT. The solar wind speed varied between 400 km/s 
and 490 km/s, gradually increasing on average. The solar wind 
speed at the time of writing this report (06/2330 UT) was 485 
km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours ranged between 2 nT 
and 8 nT; the Bz component of IMF was mostly positive, varying 
between -4 nT and 5 nT. The outlook for today (07 July) is for 
the solar wind speed to decrease gradually from moderate to nominal 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222001
      Darwin               4   22222001
      Townsville           5   22222011
      Learmonth            5   32222001
      Alice Springs        4   22222001
      Culgoora             3   22121001
      Gingin               3   22112001
      Canberra             3   22121000
      Launceston           4   22222001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   11121001
      Casey                6   33211002
      Mawson              24   64223225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   2002 3454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     7    Quiet
08 Jul     5    Quiet
09 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 06 July. Expect magnetic 
activity to be mostly at quiet levels and occasionally today 
(UT day 07 July) it may reach unsettled levels.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days (7-9 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul     4    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 06 July, MUFs were generally near predicted 
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor enhancements 
observed during the nighttime over the Southern Australian region. 
Incidence of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian region. 
Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the next three UT 
days, 07-09 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    53900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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