[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 18 issued 2339 UT on 05 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Jul 6 09:39:13 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 05 July, 
with no solar flares. There is currently no numbered sunspot 
regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 06-08 
July, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 
A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 05/1125 UT. 
Initial investigations suggest that it maybe associated with 
a far side event on the sun. Advice on the possible impact of 
this CME, if any, on Earth will be provided later. The solar 
wind were near its nominal levels of ~320 km/s till 05/0900 UT 
and thereafter gradually increased to 450 km/s. The solar wind 
speed at the time of writing (05/2300 UT) this report was 450 
km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours ranged between 5 nT 
and 12 nT; the Bz component of IMF were between -9 nT and 12 
nT. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward between 05/1000 UT 
and 05/1900 UT. The outlook for today (06 July) is for the solar 
wind speed to gradually drop to its nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11023332
      Darwin               9   21123332
      Townsville           8   -1023332
      Learmonth           10   22123333
      Alice Springs        8   11023332
      Culgoora             8   11023332
      Gingin              10   21023243
      Canberra             8   11023332
      Launceston           9   11023342    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     8   10023333
      Casey               10   12123234
      Mawson              32   32023475

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1110 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul     5    Quiet
08 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 05 July. Minor 
storm conditions were experienced in the Antarctic region. The 
disturbed magnetic conditions were caused by prolonged southward 
IMF BZ conditions in conjunction with moderate solar wind speeds. 
Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly at quiet levels and occasionally 
may reach unsettled level, today (UT day 06 July).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days (6-8 July).

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jul     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 05 July, MUFs were generally near predicted 
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor enhancement 
observed during the nighttime over the Southern Australian region. 
Incidence of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian region. 
Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the three UT days 
(06-08 Jul). The ionospheric support is expected to be weakest 
today (06 July), but still near monthly predicted levels. These 
are the aftermath of the observed minor geomagnetic disturbances.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:   10.0 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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