[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 2 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 01 Jul. 
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available 
LASCO C2 imagery during the UT day, 01 Jul. The solar wind speed 
continued to decline as coronal hole influences wane, currently 
~~350km/s. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was mostly 
neutral and the IMF Bt ranged between 2-3 nT. The outlook for 
02-04 Jul is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly at nominal 
values. Slightly enhanced solar wind speed my be observed today 
02 Jul due to weak coronal hole influence.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000000
      Darwin               0   01000000
      Townsville           0   01100000
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11110000
      Mawson               3   22120001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul     5    Quiet
04 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 01 Jul. Expect magnetic 
conditions to be mostly at Quiet levels over the next three days 
and at times may reach Unsettled level, today (02 Jul) due to 
the influence of a weak coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor depression observed 
at Northern Aus region. Observed periods of sporadic E and spread 
F throughout the Australian region. Similar conditions are expected 
over the three days (02-04 Jul).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   205000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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