[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 2 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 01 Jul.
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
LASCO C2 imagery during the UT day, 01 Jul. The solar wind speed
continued to decline as coronal hole influences wane, currently
~~350km/s. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was mostly
neutral and the IMF Bt ranged between 2-3 nT. The outlook for
02-04 Jul is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly at nominal
values. Slightly enhanced solar wind speed my be observed today
02 Jul due to weak coronal hole influence.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Darwin 0 01000000
Townsville 0 01100000
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11110000
Mawson 3 22120001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 01 Jul. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at Quiet levels over the next three days
and at times may reach Unsettled level, today (02 Jul) due to
the influence of a weak coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor depression observed
at Northern Aus region. Observed periods of sporadic E and spread
F throughout the Australian region. Similar conditions are expected
over the three days (02-04 Jul).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list