[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 1 09:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 30 Jun.
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery during the UT day, 30 Jun. Solar wind speed was slightly
enhanced under the influence of high speed solar wind stream
from a weak coronal hole, ranged between 420-500 Km/s. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT, mostly neutral
and the IMF Bt remained ~5nT. Solar wind speed is expected to
decrease to nominal values over the next three days as coronal
hole influences wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01111001
Darwin 2 01111101
Townsville 2 01211101
Learmonth 2 01111101
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Culgoora 0 01100000
Gingin 1 00101002
Canberra 0 00100001
Launceston 1 00111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 12211212
Mawson 10 22221115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul 7 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 30 Jun. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at Quiet levels over the next three days
and at times may reach Unsettled level, today (01 Jul) due to
the influence of a weak coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E
and spread F throughout the Australian region. The three days
outlook (01-03 Jul) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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