[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 1 09:30:19 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 30 Jun. 
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 
imagery during the UT day, 30 Jun. Solar wind speed was slightly 
enhanced under the influence of high speed solar wind stream 
from a weak coronal hole, ranged between 420-500 Km/s. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT, mostly neutral 
and the IMF Bt remained ~5nT. Solar wind speed is expected to 
decrease to nominal values over the next three days as coronal 
hole influences wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01111001
      Darwin               2   01111101
      Townsville           2   01211101
      Learmonth            2   01111101
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Culgoora             0   01100000
      Gingin               1   00101002
      Canberra             0   00100001
      Launceston           1   00111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   12211212
      Mawson              10   22221115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1200 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul     7    Quiet
03 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 30 Jun. Expect magnetic 
conditions to be mostly at Quiet levels over the next three days 
and at times may reach Unsettled level, today (01 Jul) due to 
the influence of a weak coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E 
and spread F throughout the Australian region. The three days 
outlook (01-03 Jul) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   303000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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