[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 14 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 13 Jan. Very Low
levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next three
UT days (14-16 Jan). No earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 13 Jan. On the UT day
13 Jan, the solar wind speed was between 300-350 km/s for most
of the day. After 13/1700 UT, it started to increase and reaching
560 km/s at 13/2231 UT. The IMF Bt peaked at 15 nT at 13/1903
UT. The IMF Bz component reached a maximum negative value of
-9 nT at 13/1748 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced
on 14 Jan due to the arrival of high speed winds from a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole. The solar winds should start
to return to background values on Jan 15.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 10223233
Cocos Island 5 10112232
Darwin 6 00122233
Townsville 8 10223233
Learmonth 10 11233233
Alice Springs 8 00223233
Culgoora 8 10223233
Camden 8 10223233
Canberra 8 00223233
Launceston 10 01333233
Hobart 8 01233223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 12 -2144222
Casey 13 23333233
Mawson 7 21222232
Davis 9 11323232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0111 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 14 Quiet to Active
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the
Australian region on UT day, 13 Jan. Quiet to Active conditions
were experienced in the Antarctic region. In the SWS magnetometer
data for 13 Jan, a weak (9nT) impulse was observed at 1251UT.
On UT day 14 Jan, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet
to Active levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet
to Unsettled levels on 15 Jan, then return to Quiet levels on
16 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan -15 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
15 Jan -15 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
16 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs experienced Minor to Moderate MUF depressions during
the local night in the Niue Island Region, during the local day
in the Northern Australian Region, and across the whole day in
the Southern Australian Region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. On UT days 14-15 Jan, MUFs are expected to
experience minor to moderate depressions due to the current geomagnetic
activity, returning to near predicted monthly values on 16 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 15700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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