[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 January 18 issued 2338 UT on 12 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 13 10:38:48 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 12 Jan. Very Low
levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next three
UT days (13-15 Jan). No earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 12 Jan. Over the last
24 hours, the solar wind speed decreased from around 360 km/s,
currently around 330 km/s. The IMF Bt mainly varied between 3-4
nT, but had a 4 hour period of increased magnitude peaking above
6 nT around 12/1600 UT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between
-4/+4 nT. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced on 13
January due to the arrival of a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole. Last rotation, the solar winds from this coronal hole reached
speeds of over 600 km/s, however it is expected to have a reduced
influence on the Earth this rotation due to its reduced size,
and location in the northern hemisphere. Stereo A also experienced
reduced solar wind speeds from this coronal hole during this
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12121201
Cocos Island 2 11011201
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 5 12121222
Learmonth 5 22122201
Alice Springs 4 12111202
Culgoora 3 12111101
Camden 4 12221201
Canberra 4 12221201
Launceston 5 12221202
Hobart 4 12221201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 02122100
Casey 12 34422211
Mawson 10 34222222
Davis 9 23322311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 14 Quiet to Active
14 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on UT day, 12 Jan. Quiet to Active conditions were experienced
in the Antarctic region. On UT day 13 Jan, geomagnetic activity
is expected to start the UT day at Quiet levels then increase
to Active levels later in the day due to the arrival of a CH
HSS. Last rotation, this CH HSS caused Minor Storm periods, however
this rotation it is expected to have a reduced influence on the
Earth. On UT day, 14 Jan, geomagnetic activity is expected to
be at Quiet to Active levels, then Quiet to Unsettled levels
on 15 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 4 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jan -10 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jan -10 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 12 Jan. The depressions occurred during
the local day in the Niue Island and Northern Australian Regions,
and during the local night in the Southern Australian Region.
Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. On UT day
13 Jan, MUFs are expected to experience minor to moderate depressions
at the start of the day but may return to near predicted monthly
values if geomagnetic activity levels increase later in the day.
MUFs are expected to experience minor to moderate depressions
on 14-15 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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