[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 18 issued 2333 UT on 10 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jan 11 10:33:01 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 Jan, with no 
flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity are expected 
for the next three UT days (11-13 Jan). No earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 10 
Jan. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed decreased from 
around 490 km/s, currently around 420 km/s. This is due to the 
waning influence of a positive polarity north polar coronal hole. 
The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 7 nT at 10/0057UT and is currently 
steady between 2-3 nT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between 
-4/+4 nT during the first half of the UT day, 10 Jan, and is 
currently steady around +1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to decrease further over the next two UT days (11-12 Jan) and 
reach background levels as the effects of the coronal hole continues 
to wane. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced on 13 
January due to the arrival of a recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211101
      Cocos Island         1   01101100
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville           3   12111101
      Learmonth            3   21211101
      Alice Springs        2   11111101
      Culgoora             3   11211101
      Camden               4   1121110-
      Canberra             3   11211101
      Launceston           3   12211101
      Hobart               3   11211101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   10111000
      Casey               11   34422111
      Mawson              10   43222222
      Davis                9   23333210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3221 2201     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     5    Quiet
12 Jan     5    Quiet
13 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region on UT day, 10 Jan. Quiet to Unsettled conditions were 
experienced in the Antarctic region with some isolated Active 
periods. On UT days, 11-12 Jan, geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at Quiet levels due to the waning influence of the CH HSS. 
Conditions are expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels 
on 13 Jan due to the arrival of another CH HSS.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jan   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
12 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
13 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 10 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing 
were also evident. MUFs are expected to experience some minor 
depressions on 11-12 Jan, then return to near predicted monthly 
values on 13 Jan.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   281000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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