[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 10 10:30:36 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 9 Jan, with no
flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three UT days (10-12 Jan). No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 9
Jan. The solar wind was enhanced due to the influence of a positive
polarity north polar coronal hole. The solar wind speed peaked
at 584 km/s at 09/0042UT then gradually decreased, currently
around 490 km/s. The IMF Bt started at around 10 nT but dropped
to around 5 nT at the start of the UT day, 9 Jan, then fluctuated
between 1 to 5 nT for the rest of the day. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated between -5/+5 nT. The solar wind is expected to wane
over 10-11 Jan, returning to nominal values on 12 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22113211
Cocos Island 4 31112200
Darwin 6 31113201
Townsville 8 32113222
Learmonth 7 32213211
Alice Springs 5 22113201
Culgoora 6 22113212
Camden 7 22123222
Canberra 5 22112212
Launceston 8 23223212
Hobart 6 22213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 22122301
Casey 22 46432222
Mawson 22 44423353
Davis 23 35433352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 0021 4321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 5 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the
Australian region on UT day, 9 Jan. Unsettled to Active conditions
were experienced in the Antarctic region with some isolated Minor
Storm periods. On UT days, 10-11 Jan, geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, returning to Quiet
conditions on 12 Jan, due to the waning influence of the CH HSS.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions during the local night on UT day 9 Jan. Periods
of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. During the next UT
day, 10 Jan, MUFs may continue to experience minor to moderate
depressions in response to the recent geomagnetic activity, returning
to near predicted monthly values on 11-12 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 74000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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