[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 6 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 05 February,
with several B-class flares all erupting from Region 2699. This
Region 2699 is currently near the East limb (S10E68). Low levels
of solar flare activity is expected for the next three days (6-8
Feb), with a chance of C-class flares. No LASCO C2 imagery data
were available for UT day 05 Feb. Investigation of other remote
sensing imagery data indicate that there has been no Earth-directed
CMEs during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day
05 February fluctuated between 400 km/s and 450 km/s. The moderately
elevated solar winds are in response to the positive polarity
coronal hole. During the UT day 5 February, the IMF Bt was mostly
steady near 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-5 nT and 5 nT. It was significantly southward (-5 nT) between
05/1100 UT and 05/1300 UT. The two day outlook (06-07 Feb) is
for the solar wind speed to decline to near background levels
as the effect of the current coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22223200
Cocos Island 3 11111300
Darwin 5 22122201
Townsville 7 22223211
Learmonth 6 22122301
Alice Springs 5 11223200
Culgoora 5 21223200
Gingin 6 21113310
Canberra 5 22213200
Launceston 6 22213211
Hobart 5 22213200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 22224100
Casey 14 34432311
Mawson 14 44333220
Davis 12 33433210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 7 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
level across the Australian region during the UT day, 5 February.
The two day outlook (6-7 Feb) for the magnetic activity to be
mostly at quiet levels and at times may reach unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (06 February).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 05 February. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian
ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (6-7 Feb) is for MUFs to
remain mostly near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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