[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 5 10:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to Low levels today, 04 Feb.
New region 2699(S09,E80) produced a C1 flare as it rotates onto
the Eastern Limb. This region may produce further C-class flares
over the next few days. Very Low to Low levels of solar flare
activity are expected over the next three days (05-07Feb). The
solar wind speed for the first part of UT day, 04 Feb was near
the nominal level of ~320 km/s. However from 04/1000 UT, there
is evidence of slight enhancements in solar wind speeds associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. The solar wind speed reached 400
km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bt also enhanced and
reached 10 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied in the range of
+/-5 nT with a more disturbed period post 04/1000 UT. Solar wind
parameters may remain slightly enhanced over the next 24 hours
due to minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11001132
Cocos Island 3 10101230
Darwin 4 10101132
Townsville 4 11001132
Learmonth 4 11002231
Alice Springs 4 11001132
Culgoora 3 11001122
Gingin 3 10001231
Canberra 3 11001122
Launceston 5 11111232
Hobart 3 11101122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 10 33322132
Mawson 6 32112221
Davis 8 22213231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 7 Quiet
07 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 04 Feb with an isolated
Unsettled period ~1800UT most likely due to slightly elevated
solar winds emanating from a weak recurrent coronal hole. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible Unsettled
periods over the next 24 hours due to minor coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are possible today, 05 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed HF propagation conditions observed during
04 Feb. Equatorial SWS data for 04 Feb is still interrupted due
to technical issues. Incidence of Sporadic E were still evident
over some SWS stations. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 12500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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