[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 30 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 29 Aug. There are no
sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery up to 29/1836 UT. During the last
UT day, 29 Aug, the solar wind speed was gradually decreasing
from 550 km/s to 490 km/s, and IMF Bt was in the range 2-4 nT.
The Bz component of IMF was varying from -2 to +3 nT without
significant periods of negative Bz. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 UT days, 30-31 Aug
and 1 Sep. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
the next 24 hours due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12111201
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 4 22111201
Townsville 4 2211121-
Learmonth 4 22221200
Alice Springs 2 12001200
Culgoora 3 12101111
Gingin 3 21110210
Canberra 2 12010201
Launceston 5 13111211
Hobart 3 12110201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 12020110
Casey 9 33331211
Mawson 25 55322335
Davis 11 24333211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3323 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 7 Quiet
31 Aug 7 Quiet
01 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
for the UT day 29 Aug. Antarctic region experienced mostly Quiet
to Unsettled conditions during the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet
global geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 30-31 Aug and 1 Sep, with possible Unsettled periods for
30 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes with depressed MUFs in northern
hemisphere and near predicted monthly MUFs in southern hemisphere.
Mostly poor ionospheric support in Antarctica during local night.
For 30 Aug, mildly depressed MUFs are expected for mid and high
latitudes in northern hemisphere and mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs in southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug -3 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep -3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For 29 Aug MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values
across the Aus/NZ region. Mildly depressed MUFs were observed
across the Northern Australian region during local day. In Antarctica,
MUFs were near predicted monthly values if F layer existed, i.e.
mostly during local day. Poor ionospheric support was observed
in Antarctica during local night. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 30-31 Aug and 1 Sep,
across the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:43%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 276000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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