[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 29 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 28 Aug. There is currently
one numbered region with spots on the visible disc, region 2720
(N08W77), which was quiet over the last 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 28/1600
UT. During the last UT day, 28 Aug, the solar wind speed varied
in the range from 510 to 590 km/s, currently at 550 km/s, and
IMF Bt was in the range 1-7 nT. The Bz component of IMF was varying
from -4 to +5 nT without significant periods of negative Bz.
Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the
next 3 UT days, 29-31 Aug. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22233010
Cocos Island 4 22222000
Darwin 6 22232011
Townsville 6 22233010
Learmonth 7 22233011
Alice Springs 5 22232000
Culgoora 5 22232001
Gingin 6 22233010
Canberra 5 22232000
Launceston 10 23343011
Hobart 8 22343000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 22354000
Casey 13 44332112
Mawson 23 55443231
Davis 15 34443211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26 1334 4552
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug 7 Quiet
31 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over
the Australian region for the UT day 28 Aug. Antarctic region
experienced Quiet to Minor Storm conditions during the last 24
hours. Quiet to Unsettled global geomagnetic conditions are expected
for 29 Aug. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected
for 30-31 Aug with possible Unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes with depressed MUFs and near predicted
monthly MUFs. Occasional poor ionospheric support at high latitudes.
For 29 Aug mildly depressed MUFs are expected for mid and high
latitudes for northern hemisphere and mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs for southern hemisphere. Ionospheric recovery is expected
by 30 Aug with MUFs near predicted monthly values for low to
mid latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
30 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For 28 Aug MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values
across the Northern Australian region during local night. Mildly
depressed MUFs were observed across the Aus/NZ regions during
local day and across the Southern Australian Region during local
night as well. In Antarctica MUFs were near predicted monthly
values (if F layer existed). Incidents of sporadic-E were observed
across Australia. Mildly depressed MUFs for the Southern Aus/NZ
and Antarctic regions are expected for 29 Aug due to recent increase
in geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to return to near
predicted monthly values by 30 Aug for all regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 330000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list