[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 2 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 01 August. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 01/1548
and in C3 imagery up to 01/1554 UT. During the UT day 01 August,
the solar wind speed first increased from around 310 km/s to
440 km/s by 1330 UT and then showed a gradual decrease to 375
km/s by 2300 UT. The total IMF Bt, through this day, varied mostly
between 3 to 9 nT and the Bz component of IMF varied between
-6 and +5 nT. The particle density in the solar wind at L1 varied
between 2 ppcc and 21 ppcc on this day. Very Low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 August.
The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21111212
Cocos Island 4 21111112
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 5 21112222
Learmonth 5 22111212
Alice Springs 3 20011212
Culgoora 3 11111111
Gingin 3 20101212
Canberra 1 10001111
Launceston 3 10011212
Hobart 2 10000112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000101
Casey 4 22110212
Mawson 13 41112225
Davis 16 32222126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 5 Quiet
03 Aug 5 Quiet
04 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 01 August. Mainly Quiet levels of
global geomagnetic activity are expected on UT days 02 to 04
August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
01 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some high-latitude regions and periods of minor MUF depressions
in some mid-latitude regions. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF
values and normal HF conditions are expected for the next three
UT days (02 to 04 August).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 01 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF
enhancements in the Southern areas and periods of minor MUF depressions
in the Northern areas. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values
and normal HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for
the next three UT days (02 to 04 August).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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