[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 1 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 July. There
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk visible
from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
C2 imagery up to 31/2048 and in C3 imagery up to 31/2042 UT.
A filament eruption was observed between 4 and 7 UT/31 July in
the Learmonth H-alpha and SDO AIA 304 and AIA 193 images. No CME
was seen lifting off the Sun after this eruption. During the
UT day 31 July, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 300
km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 to
9 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between -3 and +8 nT. Very
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 1 to 3 August. The solar wind is expected to remain
at nominal levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 2 11110021
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 3 21101112
Learmonth 2 11100121
Alice Springs 2 11000112
Culgoora 2 11100111
Gingin 2 11100121
Canberra 1 11000111
Launceston 3 21100211
Hobart 1 11000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 5 23110121
Mawson 12 42100153
Davis 10 22211052
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 5 Quiet
02 Aug 5 Quiet
03 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 31 July. Mainly Quiet levels of global
geomagnetic activity are expected on UT days, 01 to 03 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
31 July, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements. Periods
of minor MUF depressions were also observed in some mid-latitude
regions. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values and normal
HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days (01 to
03 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 2 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 2 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 31 July, with periods of minor to mild MUF
enhancements. Periods of minor MUF depressions were also observed
in some northern areas of the regions. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUF values and normal HF conditions are expected in the
Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (01 to 03 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list