[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 3 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 101/49 101/49 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 2674(N15E26) produced several B-class and C-class X-ray
flares. The largest flare was a C7.7 at 02/1541UT from active
region 2672 which has already rotated around the west limb. It
was associated with a CME and Type II sweep, however is not expected
to be geoeffective. Expect Low solar activity with a chance of
an M-class flare for the next three days. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 02/1900UT.
The solar wind speed ranged from 680 to around 560 km/s during
the UT day, 02 September. The elevated speed is associated with
the positive polarity recurrent a coronal hole. The Btotal for
the interplanetary magnetic (IMF) field ranged from 9 to 4 nT
during this period and is currently near 5 nT. Bz component of
the IMF ranged from +/- 7 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain
elevated for 03 September, and to gradually return to nominal
levels by 04 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 33432321
Cocos Island 10 23332311
Darwin 11 33332311
Townsville 14 34432321
Learmonth 10 23332321
Alice Springs 10 23332321
Norfolk Island 18 3343----
Culgoora 18 3343----
Gingin 10 23332321
Camden 14 34432321
Canberra 13 24432321
Launceston 19 34542322
Hobart 15 24442321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Casey 26 35432623
Mawson 33 46443354
Davis 22 35443342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 4324 4223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 12 Unsettled
04 Sep 6 Quiet
05 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active levels
during the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels
in the Australian region. Dst index indicates weak sub-storming
continues. Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain Unsettled
with possible isolated periods of Active levels over the UT day,
03 September and a return to mostly Quiet conditions on 04 September
as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication on the UT day, 03
September, due to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor
depressions at higher latitudes, particularly in the northern
hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values with enhancements observed in the local night
time hours in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Note
possible degraded HF communication for 03 September due to minor
geomagnetic storming. Otherwise expect near predicted monthly
MUFs in the Australian region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 572000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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