[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 3 09:30:18 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   101/49             101/49              98/45

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active 
region 2674(N15E26) produced several B-class and C-class X-ray 
flares. The largest flare was a C7.7 at 02/1541UT from active 
region 2672 which has already rotated around the west limb. It 
was associated with a CME and Type II sweep, however is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Expect Low solar activity with a chance of 
an M-class flare for the next three days. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 02/1900UT. 
The solar wind speed ranged from 680 to around 560 km/s during 
the UT day, 02 September. The elevated speed is associated with 
the positive polarity recurrent a coronal hole. The Btotal for 
the interplanetary magnetic (IMF) field ranged from 9 to 4 nT 
during this period and is currently near 5 nT. Bz component of 
the IMF ranged from +/- 7 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain 
elevated for 03 September, and to gradually return to nominal 
levels by 04 September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33432321
      Cocos Island        10   23332311
      Darwin              11   33332311
      Townsville          14   34432321
      Learmonth           10   23332321
      Alice Springs       10   23332321
      Norfolk Island      18   3343----
      Culgoora            18   3343----
      Gingin              10   23332321
      Camden              14   34432321
      Canberra            13   24432321
      Launceston          19   34542322
      Hobart              15   24442321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
      Casey               26   35432623
      Mawson              33   46443354
      Davis               22   35443342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17   4324 4223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    12    Unsettled
04 Sep     6    Quiet
05 Sep     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active levels 
during the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels 
in the Australian region. Dst index indicates weak sub-storming 
continues. Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain Unsettled 
with possible isolated periods of Active levels over the UT day, 
03 September and a return to mostly Quiet conditions on 04 September 
as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication on the UT day, 03 
September, due to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor 
depressions at higher latitudes, particularly in the northern 
hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with enhancements observed in the local night 
time hours in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Note 
possible degraded HF communication for 03 September due to minor 
geomagnetic storming. Otherwise expect near predicted monthly 
MUFs in the Australian region for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 624 km/sec  Density:   10.5 p/cc  Temp:   572000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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