[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 2 09:30:21 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              96/43              96/43

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active 
regions 2674(N15E55) produced several B-class X-ray flares and 
two C-class X-ray flares. The largest was a C2.0 at 01/1537UT. 
Expect Low to Moderate solar activity for the next three days. 
Note there is a moderate chance for a M-class flare. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 01/2048UT. 
The solar wind speed ranged from 520 to around 700 km/s during 
the UT day, 01 September. The elevated speed is associated with 
the positive polarity recurrent a coronal hole. The Btotal for 
the interplanetary magnetic (IMF) field ranged from 4 to 11 nT 
during this period and is currently at 9 nT. Bz component of 
the IMF ranged from -8/+6 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain 
elevated for 02-03 September, and to gradually return to nominal 
levels by 04 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22244222
      Cocos Island         8   12233212
      Darwin              11   22343222
      Townsville          14   32344222
      Learmonth           16   22335323
      Alice Springs       13   22344222
      Norfolk Island       8   22233212
      Culgoora            10   22234222
      Gingin              15   22235323
      Camden              12   22244222
      Canberra            10   22234222
      Launceston          18   33245323
      Hobart              12   22244222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
      Casey               19   34444223
      Mawson              43   65355336
      Davis               22   34454323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            91   (Minor storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             28   2345 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Sep    12    Unsettled
04 Sep     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active levels 
during the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels 
in the Australian region. Dst index indicates weak sub-storming 
continues. Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain Unsettled 
with possible isolated periods of Active to Minor Storm levels 
over the next two days and a return to mostly Quiet conditions 
on 04 September as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication between 02-03 September 
due to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor depressions 
at higher latitudes, particularly in the northern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Sep    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with enhancements observed in the local night 
time hours in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Note 
possible degraded HF communication for 02-03 September due to 
minor geomagnetic storming. Otherwise expect near predicted monthly 
MUFs in the Australian region for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 590 km/sec  Density:   12.0 p/cc  Temp:   506000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list