[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 23 10:30:27 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low to low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 October.
Returning active region 2683 will be rotating onto the visible
solar disc, most likely later in the UT day. Expect Very Low
to Low solar activity for the UT day, 23 October with a slight
chance of M-class flares. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 22/1936UT. The solar
wind gradually decreased from 505 to 390 km/s and is currently
near 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Btotal ranged
between 3-7 nT over the last 24 hours, currently, ~5nT, while
the Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT. Expect the solar
wind to remain at nominal levels for today and then increase
to elevated levels on 24 October due to the influence of a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Cocos Island 2 11101111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 4 21111112
Alice Springs 4 21111112
Norfolk Island 5 21112222
Culgoora 2 11111011
Gingin 4 31110021
Camden 4 22111012
Canberra 2 11111011
Launceston 4 22111112
Hobart 2 21101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 21000010
Casey 15 45421121
Mawson 25 44212156
Davis 8 33222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 7 1211 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 4 Quiet
24 Oct 20 Active to Minor Storm
25 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 24-25 Oct. The magnetic field over Australia
was at Quiet levels during the UT day, 22 October. The Antarctic
region was at Quiet to Unsettled levels with isolated periods
of Active conditions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail
for today and Unsettled to Active conditions with isolated periods
of Minor Storm levels on 24-25 October due to the recurrent coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs for 23-24 October. On 25
October expect some degradation in HF Communication (Fair conditions)
and a return to Minor depressions due to the onset of a geomagnetic
storm on 24 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressions in the Australian
region for the UT day, 22 October. Expect this trend to continue
for 23-24 October, however on 25 October expect some degradation
in HF Communication and a return to Minor depressions due to
the onset of a geomagnetic storm on 24 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 56800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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