[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 13 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 12
October, with no numbered sunspot group on the earthward side
of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels of solar activity to
continue for the next three days (13-15 October). No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 12
October. The solar wind remained enhanced on UT day 12 October
due to CH HSS, peaked at 600km/s at 1500UT and is currently around
520km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 13 nT early UT day but
has dropped and is currently around 6 nT. The Bz component of
IMF has been mainly southward. It varied between +/- 10 nT early
in the UT day, then between +/- 5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain enhanced on 13 October but start to decline
on 14 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 42344322
Townsville 13 32334322
Learmonth 24 52445422
Norfolk Island 13 32334322
Culgoora 13 32334322
Camden 19 42345322
Canberra 13 32334312
Launceston 24 43455322
Hobart 18 42444322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 50 34657621
Casey 21 53344323
Mawson 58 64555457
Davis 33 63444453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27 3454 4533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
14 Oct 20 Quiet to Active
15 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13 Oct only. Magnetic conditions were Active
to Minor Storm across the Australian region at the start of the
UT day, 12 October, then decreased to Quiet to Unsettled levels
later in the UT day. Magnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet
to Active levels on 13-14 October. Minor Storm conditions may
occur today, 13 October provided IMF Bz maintained strongly southward
for a prolonged period then Quiet to Unsettled ton 15 October
as solar winds slowly decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Fair-normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
14 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
15 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions for the next three
days due recent Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions
associated with the passage of a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over the last 24 hours
in the Australian/NZ region in response to the recent Active
to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions associated with the passage
of a coronal hole. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected
to be remain depressed for the next three UT days. These depressions
are the aftermath of the observed Active to Minor Storm conditions
on 11-12 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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