[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 2 10:30:30 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 1 October.
Expect Very Low activity for the next three days (2-4 October),
with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 1 October.
The solar wind remained enhanced due to the recent coronal hole
but speeds continued to decrease over the past 24 hours from
490 km/s to 430 km/s currently. The IMF Bt varied between 3 to
6 nT. The Bz component of IMF has been mainly southward, varying
between +/- 5 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline,
returning to nominal values on 2 October, then possibly becoming
enhanced later on UT day 3 October or early on 4 October due
to the influence of a negative-polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 21232312
Cocos Island 5 21211311
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 10 32232322
Learmonth 10 32223322
Alice Springs 6 21222311
Norfolk Island 8 31232212
Culgoora 8 21232312
Gingin 10 32223322
Camden 8 21232312
Canberra 8 21232312
Launceston 11 22342322
Hobart 9 21332312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 21354321
Casey 18 44432422
Mawson 42 53332755
Davis 36 43532743
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 2332 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 13 Quiet to Active
04 Oct 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region on the UT day, 1 October. Conditions were
mainly Unsettled to Active in the Antarctic region, with some
isolated Storm periods. Magnetic activity is expected to be at
Quiet to Unsettled levels on 2 October, then Quiet to Active
on 3 October and Unsettled to Active on 4 October due to the
possible arrival of enhanced solar winds from a negative-polarity
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were mainly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian/NZ and Antarctic Regions.
Enhanced MUFs were observed in the Northern Australian Region
during the local day. The three day outlook (2-4 October) is
for MUFs to be mainly near monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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