[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 1 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 89/33 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 September.
Expect Very Low activity for the next three days (1-3 October),
with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 30 September.
The solar wind remained enhanced due to the coronal hole but
speeds continued to decrease over the past 24 hours from 540
km/s to 490 km/s currently. The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 5.4
nT at 30/1301UT and is currently around 4 nT. The Bz component
of IMF has been mainly southward, varying between -5 to 3 nT.
The solar wind is expected to continue to decline but remain
enhanced over the next two days (01-02 October), returning to
nominal values on 03 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22324322
Cocos Island 8 11204321
Darwin 11 22324322
Townsville 11 22324322
Learmonth 15 22325332
Alice Springs 11 22324322
Norfolk Island 9 12323312
Culgoora 10 22323322
Gingin 11 21324331
Camden 11 22324322
Canberra 11 12324322
Launceston 14 22334422
Hobart 14 22334422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 21 24425521
Casey 16 43333333
Mawson 33 44433456
Davis 18 33443342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3232 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region on the UT day, 30 September, with an Active
period at the start of the second half of the UT day. Conditions
were mainly Unsettled to Active in the Antarctic region, with
some isolated Minor Storms. Magnetic activity is expected to
be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 01-02 October, with possible
Active periods, and Quiet to Unsettled on 3 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were mainly near predicted
monthly values across most of the Australian/NZ and Antarctic
Regions. Some periods of enhanced MUFs were observed in the Northern
Australian Region during the local day. The three day outlook
(01-03) is for the MUFs to be mainly near monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 609 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 364000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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