[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 17 10:30:29 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 16 November. There
is currently one numbered active region, 2687 (S08E41), on the
visible disk. Very Low solar flare activity is expected for the
next three UT days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery up to 16/1900 UT. The solar wind speed varied between
450 km/s and 520 km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently
around 470 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt went
from 10 nT to 2 nT over the same period and is currently 4 nT.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-8 nT. The solar
wind is expected to remain elevated over the UT day, 17 November
due to southern near equatorial negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 33331112
Cocos Island 5 22221211
Darwin 8 32331112
Townsville 10 33331122
Learmonth 10 32331223
Alice Springs 8 32331112
Norfolk Island 8 33321012
Culgoora 9 33331112
Gingin 9 32331222
Camden 9 33331112
Canberra 9 33331112
Launceston 12 34341112
Hobart 11 33341112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 33451111
Casey 18 45422223
Mawson 37 45433266
Davis 19 34443224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2333 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 12 Unsettled
18 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region with isolated periods of Active
conditions observed at higher latitudes such as Tasmania. Mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next three
days with isolated periods of Active levels likely if the Bz
turns negative for a prolonged period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs expected with minor depressions
likely in the higher southern latitudes due to weak geomagnetic
activity with seasonal effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
19 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Northern Australian region
MUFs were Moderately to Severely depressed. In the Southern Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions MUFs were Minor to Moderately depressed.
Isolated periods of sporadic E was observed throughout the Australian
region. Over the next three days expect near predicted MUFs to
minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 80900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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