[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 31 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 May,
with several B-class flares. Expect Very Low solar activity for
the next 3 UT days, 31 May - 2 June. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery for 30 May. However,
a 27 degree long filament in the southeast quadrant disappeared
between 0959 UT and 1444 UT, pending further analysis. The solar
wind speed was ~430 km/s at the beginning of the UT day, 30 May,
then between 0400 UT and 0930 UT it increased up to 560 km/s,
currently at 520 km/s. The speed is expected to remain elevated
over the next 24 hours. Over the last 24 hours the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Btotal and its Bz component varied in the range
4-10 nT and +6/-7 nT, respectively. There was a prolonged period
with negative Bz, 30/0120-0300 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 3 13110000
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 4 23120001
Townsville 4 23120001
Learmonth 4 23220000
Alice Springs 3 13120000
Culgoora 3 13110001
Gingin 2 12210000
Camden 3 13110000
Canberra 1 12010000
Launceston 3 23110000
Hobart 3 13110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 6 33310000
Mawson 15 35321124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 1112 4431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 7 Quiet
01 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was mostly
Quiet and reached Unsettled levels in the first half of the UT
day, 30 May, due to the prolonged period with negative IMF Bz
component dipping to -7 nT. As Bz returned to positive, the geomagnetic
activity subsided and is currently at Quiet levels again. Expect
geomagnetic activity to remain at Quiet levels for 31 May. Later
on 1 June the geomagnetic activity may increase due to a coronal
hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for 31
May - 2 June. For 31 May minor depressions are likely at middle
and high latitudes in the Northern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region. Minor depressions were observed during
local night. However, ionograms from Hobart from 1100 UT to 2000
UT showed no foF2 layer. Isolated periods of Sporadic E were
also observed. Expect mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during
the next three UT days, 31 May - 2 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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