[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 30 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 May,
with several B-class flares. Expect Very Low solar activity for
the next 3 UT days, 30 May - 1 June, as AR2659 rotates around
the limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed using LASCO imagery
for 29 May up to 2200UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 340
to 470 km/s during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain
in this range over the next 24 hours, currently at 420 km/s.
Over the last 24 hours the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Btotal
and its Bz component varied in the range 3-18 nT and +12/-13
nT, respectively. There was a prolonged period with negative
Bz, 29/1100-1425 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 6 01124220
Cocos Island 3 00122220
Darwin 5 11123220
Townsville 7 11124221
Learmonth 9 01224330
Alice Springs 5 11123220
Culgoora 6 01024220
Gingin 7 01124320
Camden 8 1-134220
Canberra 5 00024210
Launceston 13 11135331
Hobart 9 00035220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 23 00047320
Casey 6 12223220
Mawson 11 11333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 49 6765 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 7 Quiet
01 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was mostly
Quiet and reached Active levels in the middle of the UT day,
29 May, due to the prolonged period with negative IMF Bz component
dipping to -13 nT. As Bz returned to positive, the geomagnetic
activity subsided and is currently at Quiet levels again. Expect
geomagnetic activity to remain at Quiet to Unsettled levels for
30 May and at Quiet levels for 31 May - 1 June. Isolated Active
periods can be observed on 30 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for 30
May - 1 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region. Isolated periods of Sporadic E were also
observed. Expect similar conditions during the next three UT
days, 30 May - 1 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 84400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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