[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 23 09:30:23 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 May. 
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days. 
There is a moderate chance that active region 2658 may produce 
a C-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs expected. The solar wind 
speed ranged from 600 to 520 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect 
the solar wind speed to gradually return to nominal levels over 
the next two days as the effect of the negative polarity coronal 
hole rotates out of geoeffective range. The north-south component 
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +5/-6nT, predominately negative, 
over the last 24 hours and B total declined from 7 to 4 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11233222
      Cocos Island         6   11213221
      Darwin               7   11223222
      Townsville           8   21233222
      Alice Springs        7   12223222
      Culgoora             8   11233222
      Gingin              11   21233333
      Camden              10   11233323
      Canberra             6   11123222
      Launceston          12   21234323
      Hobart              10   11233323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island    15   11254323
      Casey               12   33323223
      Mawson              40   43333376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   3332 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 May     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled levels for 
the UT day, 22 May. Expect geomagnetic activity to decrease to 
Quiet levels over the next to days as the coronal hole induced 
high speed solar stream rotates around the limb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs for the UT day, 22 
May. Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in the 
Australian region and a possibility of Minor depressions towards 
the Antarctic region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 613 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   589000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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