[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 22 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 21 May). As
anticipated, the effect of the negative polarity coronal hole
kept the solar wind stream strong. The solar wind speed stayed
mostly between ~600 km/s and ~700 km/s, showing a slow declining
trend. By 23UT solar wind speed was down to ~580 km/s. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated mostly between +/-5nT during
this day, staying slightly south for relatively longer periods
of time. Solar wind stream is expected to stay strong for the
next two days due to the effect of this coronal hole. Very low
levels of solar activity with some possibility of isolated C-class
event may be expected for the next three days (22 to 24 May).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Mostly quiet
to unsettled with isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22331121
Cocos Island 4 11221021
Darwin 5 22221021
Townsville 7 22331121
Alice Springs 6 22231021
Culgoora 7 22331121
Gingin 9 22332132
Camden 9 23332121
Canberra 5 12321021
Launceston 12 23442122
Hobart 9 22432121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 18 23642111
Casey 12 34322232
Mawson 37 55443265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 66 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 23 4444 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 15 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed below the anticipated levels
on 21 May as, Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not show any sustained periods of enough southward
orientation. The effect of this coronal hole may still raise
geomagnetic activity during the next 2 days if Bz turns negative
enough. Mostly unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity may be
expected on 22 May with the possibility of some quiet and some
active periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to
and stay mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 and 24 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to less than expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on 21 May, against anticipations, HF conditions and MUFs
stayed close to the normal values with minor MUF enhancements
recorded in low-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
and MUFs may be expected from 22 to 24 May with some possibility
of minor to mild MUF depressions on 22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 15 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to less than expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on 21 May, against anticipations, HF conditions and MUFs
stayed close to the normal values with minor MUF enhancements
recorded in the Northern Aus regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
and MUFs may be expected in this region from 22 to 24 May with
some possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 503000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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