[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 25 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (24 March, UT).
As anticipated, the effect of the recurrent coronal hole is continuing
to keep the solar wind stream strong but showing signs of weakening.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from ~650 km/s to ~540
km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component of the
IMF, Bz was more stable and varied mostly between +5/-4 nT during
the day. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to further
weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours. Very Low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next 3 days (25 to 27 March) with
a slight chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22212200
Cocos Island 3 12212100
Darwin 4 22212101
Townsville 5 22212201
Learmonth 5 22213200
Alice Springs 4 22212200
Norfolk Island 2 12111100
Culgoora 4 22212100
Gingin 3 22102200
Canberra 1 11101100
Launceston 5 22212211
Hobart 4 21212200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 22112200
Casey 16 45422301
Mawson 9 23322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4422 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
26 Mar 5 Quiet
27 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind
stream from the positive polarity recurrent coronal hole has
shown weakening through the UT day today (24 March). Geomagnetic
activity did not rise to the expected levels as the north-south
component of IMF, Bz did not turn negative enough and did not
show sustained periods of negative values. Solar wind speed still
being high (around 540 km/s), there is potential for geomagnetic
activity levels to rise to active levels on 25 March, if Bz turns
sufficiently southwards and for sufficiently long intervals of
time. Due to the weakening effect of the coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decrease to unsettled and then
to quiet levels through the days 26 and 27 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(24 March, UT) with some periods of minor to mild enhancements
in the equatorial regions. Nearly similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three days (25 to 27 March).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 22 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near
predicted monthly values today (24 March, UT) with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements in the equatorial regions. Nearly
similar HF conditions are expected for the next three days (25
to 27 March) in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 428000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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