[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 24 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (23 March, UT).
A B3.3 flare was observed at 1858 UT from region 2643(N08E50).
As anticipated, the effect of the recurrent coronal hole is continuing
to keep the solar wind stream strong. The solar wind speed varied
between 600 km/s and 700 km/s during most parts of the UT day
today. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz was at around
-3 nT at the start of the day and then gradually rose to around
+6 nT by the time of this report. The effect of this coronal
hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the
next two days. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 days (24 to 26 March) with a slight chance of
C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 32222211
Cocos Island 4 21121211
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 8 32232211
Learmonth 8 32232212
Alice Springs 7 32222211
Norfolk Island 6 32221111
Culgoora 7 32222211
Gingin 8 32232221
Canberra 4 22221100
Launceston 11 33332311
Hobart 7 22332210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 33341100
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 23 56422222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23 4424 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 20 Quiet to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
25 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
26 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind
stream from the positive polarity recurrent coronal hole has
been keeping the geomagnetic activity enhanced. Although isolated
periods of minor storm were observed on high latitudes, geomagnetic
activity did not rise to the expected levels as the north-south
component of IMF, Bz did not stay south during most parts of
the UT day (23 March). Solar wind speed still being high (between
600 km/s and 700 km/s), there is potential for geomagnetic activity
levels to rise to minor storm levels on 24 March, if Bz turns
sufficiently southwards and for sufficiently long intervals of
time. Due to the continued effect of the coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity may rise up to active levels with a slight possibility
of isolated minor storm periods in Aus/NZ regions on 24 March.
Geomagnetic activity in this region is then expected to gradually
decrease to unsettled and then to quiet levels through the days
25 and 26 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(23 March, UT) with some periods of minor enhancements. Minor
to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are
expected on 24 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to stay
mostly at normal levels on 25 and 26 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 18 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near
predicted monthly values today (23 March, UT) with some periods
of minor enhancements. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are expected in the Australian/NZ regions on
24 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
at normal levels on 25 and 26 March in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 679 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 553000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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