[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Mar 21 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (20 March, UT).
The solar wind speed has been at ambient levels, ranging between
310 km/s and 330 km/s during most parts of the day. The north-south
component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-4 nT and Bt varied
between 4 and 5 nT. A large positive polarity coronal hole is
expected to strengthen the solar wind stream from late in the
UT day 21 March. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 days (21 to 23 March).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 00000101
Cocos Island 2 11100200
Darwin 1 01000102
Townsville 1 10000111
Learmonth 1 00000201
Alice Springs 1 00000201
Norfolk Island 0 00000001
Culgoora 0 00000101
Gingin 1 00000210
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 2 00110211
Hobart 1 00110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 7 23320211
Mawson 3 21111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 16 Unsettled to Active
23 Mar 22 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today (20
March, UT). Due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity may rise to unsettled levels on 21 March, to active
levels on 22 March and to minor storm levels on 23 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(20 March, UT). MUFs and HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
normal on 21 March. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are possible on 22 and 23 March due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 0 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
23 Mar -5 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near
predicted monthly values today (20 March, UT). MUFs and HF conditions
are expected to stay mostly normal on 21 March in this region.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are possible in the Australian/NZ regions on 22 and 23 March
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 17500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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