[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 17 issued 2341 UT on 11 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 12 10:41:14 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (12-14 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class
flares. The solar wind speeds remained slightly enhanced over
the last 24 hours. They were variable, reaching a minimum of
372 km/s at 11/1755 UT, and a maximum of 436 km/s at 11/0738
UT. They are currently around 413 km/s. The IMF Bt increased
over the last 24 hours, starting at around 2 nT and reaching
a maximum of 7.5 nT. It is currently around 6 nT. The Bz component
varied between -5 nT and +3 nT, and was predominantly southward
in the later half of the UT day. It is currently around -3 nT.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slightly enhanced on
12-13 Mar. An extension of the positive northern polar coronal
hole is expected to start strengthening the solar wind stream
from late on 13 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 10100012
Cocos Island 2 10100012
Darwin 2 10100012
Townsville 3 10200022
Learmonth 3 11110122
Alice Springs 2 10100012
Norfolk Island 1 00100002
Culgoora 2 10100112
Gingin 2 10110112
Canberra 1 00100002
Launceston 3 11200122
Hobart 2 01100112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 00100121
Casey 10 24420122
Mawson 24 42231256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 3344 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar 8 Quiet to Active
14 Mar 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 11 Mar was at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region experienced
Quiet to Active levels with an isolated Storm period. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled on 12 Mar and
most of 13 Mar. High speed winds from a coronal hole are expected
to arrive late on 13 Mar which may result in Unsettled to Active
conditions late on 13 Mar and on 14 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may occur in high latitude regions as geomagnetic
conditions may experience Unsettled activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar -5 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across most of the Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for the UT day 11 Mar. MUFs in the Southern
Australian region experienced minor depressions during the local
day. The Cocos Island and Niue Island regions experienced moderate
depressions during the local night. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected over the Australian region over the next UT
day (12 Mar).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list